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Updated: May 4, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
The effects of social security on population and output growth
Abstract:
"In this paper we have considered two unfunded social security programs. Under the conventional system, benefits are related to aggregate fertility; under the hypothetical fertility-related system, benefits are directly linked to individual fertility. The effects on fertility and per capita growth rates of the two social security systems are examined in the context of endogenous growth." The relative merits of the two systems for developing and developed countries are considered. The authors conclude that "the conventional social security system existing in many developed nations may be desirable to...developing countries in reducing population and promoting economic growth. On the other hand, the hypothetical fertility-related system may be useful to developed countries as far as increasing fertility is concerned."
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