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Updated: Aug 5, 2026
20:36
Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
[Trend analysis for interprefectural migration in Japan, 1954-1993]
Summary
Japanese interprefectural migration patterns shifted post-WWII. Initially concentrating in industrial hubs, population redistribution favored provincial areas, with recent trends showing a decline in migration
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Spatial analysis
- Statistical modeling
Context:
- Post-WWII Japanese economic development.
- Interprefectural migration dynamics.
- Population distribution trends.
Purpose:
- Analyze long-term Japanese interprefectural migration trends.
- Utilize a Markov migration model.
- Examine population redistribution patterns.
Summary:
- Migration initially concentrated in industrialized prefectures (Tokyo, Osaka, Aichi) from the 1950s to 1970.
- Post-1970s, populations redistributed to provincial prefectures.
- Reconcentration to Tokyo occurred in the mid-1980s but ceased in the 1990s due to economic recession.
- The recent migration system shows a reduced capacity for population redistribution.
Impact:
- Understanding shifts in population distribution.
- Informing regional development policies.
- Forecasting future migration patterns.
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