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[Demographic variables and social dependency: annual and intergenerational comparisons]
Cahiers Quebecois De Demographie
|October 1, 1995
Summary
Future Canadian social expenditures will be impacted by demographic shifts. Generations born before 1991 may receive more benefits than they contribute, while later generations face a deficit.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Demography
- Public Policy
Context:
- Analysis of Canadian Government programs (services and transfers).
- Focus on age-specific expenditures and demographic changes.
- Examination of labor force participation effects on social spending.
Purpose:
- To assess the impact of demographic trends and labor force participation on future social expenditures in Canada.
- To analyze generational social benefit receipts versus contributions.
- To forecast the financial sustainability of social programs.
Summary:
- Cross-sectional analysis indicates increased activity rates and delayed retirement significantly influence social expenditures.
- Generational accounting reveals cohorts born before 1991 are projected to have a net benefit surplus.
- Subsequent generations are expected to face a net deficit due to demographic structure and expenditure patterns.
- Negative population growth scenarios predict future deficits for all generations.
Impact:
- Highlights potential intergenerational inequity in social benefit distribution.
- Informs policy decisions regarding retirement age, labor force participation, and social program funding.
- Provides crucial data for long-term fiscal planning and social security system reforms.
Keywords:
Age FactorsAmericasCanadaDemographic FactorsDemographic ImpactDeveloped CountriesEconomic FactorsEstimation TechnicsExpendituresFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFinancial ActivitiesFinancing, GovernmentGenerationsNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastResearch MethodologySocial Security