[Demographic variables and social dependency: annual and intergenerational comparisons]

"Drawing on a profile of age-specific expenditures for selected [Canadian] Government programmes (services and transfers), we examine the effect of demographic changes and labour force participation on social expenditures in the upcoming decades. In terms of cross-sectional analysis, increased activity rates and particularly a postponed retirement age would exercise a major impact.... Using a different approach, it is possible to distinguish for each generation the social benefits received and corresponding contributions. Whereas the amount of benefits received by a specific cohort essentially depends on its size, contributions vary according to annual social expenditures. The demographic structures are such that the generations born before 1991 will profit from an excess in benefits...while for the following generations the situation will be reversed.... For all scenarios with negative population growth, future generations may expect to incur a deficit in terms of social expenses." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)