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The selection of internal migration models for European regions
International Journal of Population Geography : IJPG
|June 1, 1997
Summary
Simplifying complex multiregional projection models is crucial due to high data demands. This study found a simplified model balancing accuracy and parsimony for internal migration analysis.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Multiregional projection models require detailed migration data (age, sex, origin, destination).
- These data requirements are often prohibitively high, necessitating data aggregation and model simplification.
- Existing models may lack parsimony due to excessive data complexity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the simplification of the full internal migration matrix in multiregional models.
- To assess the impact of simplification on model performance and accuracy.
- To identify a parsimonious yet effective model specification.
Main Methods:
- Utilized iterative proportional fitting (IPF) methods.
- Performed log-linear analysis on alternative model specifications.
- Applied data from Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK for validation.
Main Results:
- The full internal migration matrix can be simplified without significantly compromising model performance.
- A simplified model specification demonstrated a reasonable balance between goodness-of-fit and parsimony.
- The optimal model includes time interacting with main effects (age/sex, origin, destination).
Conclusions:
- Simplified multiregional models are feasible and effective for migration analysis.
- The proposed simplified model offers a practical approach to population projection.
- This research provides a more parsimonious method for understanding internal migration patterns.
Keywords:
Age FactorsDemographic FactorsDestinationDeveloped CountriesEuropeItalyMediterranean CountriesMigrationMigration, InternalModels, TheoreticalNetherlandsNorthern EuropeOriginPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologySex FactorsSouthern EuropeUnited KingdomWestern EuropeMore Related Videos
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