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Modelling regional migration in China: estimation and decomposition.

J Shen

    Environment & Planning A
    |September 27, 2002
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study analyzes spatial structure and origin-destination factors influencing interregional migration in China using various migration models. Findings help understand migration drivers for better policy-making.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Human Geography
    • Spatial Science

    Background:

    • Interregional migration is a complex phenomenon influenced by spatial factors and origin-destination characteristics.
    • Understanding these drivers is crucial for effective regional planning and policy development.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To identify and quantify the effects of spatial structure and origin-destination attributes on interregional migration.
    • To develop a decomposition approach for analyzing migration patterns based on established models.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized a decomposition approach based on migration models.
    • Estimated and compared a gravity migration model, an extended gravity model, a Poisson gravity model, and a multilevel Poisson model.
    • Employed interprovincial migration data for China from 1985-1990.
    Keywords:
    AsiaChinaDemographic FactorsDestinationDeveloping CountriesEastern AsiaEstimation TechnicsGeographic FactorsMigrationMigration, Internal--determinantsModels, TheoreticalOriginPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologySpatial Distribution

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    Main Results:

    • The study successfully decomposed the various effects influencing migration in China.
    • Quantitative insights were gained into the relative importance of spatial structure versus origin-destination attributes.
    • Different migration models provided varying perspectives on the decomposition of migration drivers.

    Conclusions:

    • Spatial structure and origin-destination attributes significantly impact interregional migration patterns.
    • The developed decomposition approach offers a robust method for analyzing migration determinants.
    • Findings provide valuable data for informing migration policies and regional development strategies in China.