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The census undercount: effects on federal aid to cities
Urban Affairs Quarterly
|March 1, 1982
Summary
Adjusting U.S. census data for undercounts has minimal impact on federal grant allocations. Most large cities may see gains of only about $20 per uncounted person, with some experiencing losses.
Area of Science:
- Public Policy
- Demography
- Economics
Background:
- Federal grant allocations are influenced by U.S. census data.
- Local officials claim significant financial losses due to census undercounts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the actual financial impact of adjusting 1980 U.S. population census figures for undercounts on federal grant allocations to cities.
- To contrast the claims of local officials with the study's findings on the effects of undercount adjustments.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of federal grant allocation formulas.
- Evaluation of the impact of population undercount adjustments on funding.
- Discussion of limitations in census undercount estimation techniques.
Main Results:
- Undercount adjustments are projected to add minimally to federal grants, potentially around $20 per uncounted person in a few large cities.
- Most large cities are likely to experience much smaller financial gains or even losses in federal aid after undercount adjustments.
- The study identifies several factors contributing to these limited impacts, including methodological limitations and the varied use of population data in allocation formulas.
Conclusions:
- The financial impact of census undercount adjustments on federal grant allocations is often overestimated by local officials.
- Limitations in undercount estimation and the structure of allocation formulas significantly moderate the effect of population adjustments on city funding.
- Policy implications suggest a need for more accurate undercount estimation and a review of how population data influences federal aid distribution.
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