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Economic-demographic models for forecasting interregional migration.

D A Plane, P A Rogerson

    Environment & Planning A
    |February 1, 1985
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study introduces a new spatial economic-demographic forecasting model, merging Markov and economic gravity approaches. It improves predictions by incorporating changing economic opportunities for migration analysis.

    Area of Science:

    • Spatial economics
    • Demographic modeling
    • Forecasting methodologies

    Background:

    • Traditional Markov and economic gravity models have limitations in capturing dynamic spatial interactions.
    • Understanding the interplay between economic opportunity and demographic shifts is crucial for accurate forecasting.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To propose a novel class of spatial economic-demographic forecasting models.
    • To integrate economic opportunity dynamics into demographic migration models.
    • To provide a unified framework for spatial interaction modeling.

    Main Methods:

    • Combining elements of traditional Markov and economic gravity models.
    • Modifying base-period probability structures with changing economic opportunity distributions.
    Keywords:
    AmericasDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEconomic FactorsEconomic ModelEstimation TechnicsGeographic FactorsMarkov ChainMathematical ModelMigrationMigration, InternalModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastResearch MethodologySocioeconomic FactorsUnited States

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Addressing estimation challenges in spatial interaction models.

    • Main Results:

    • An empirical application to US interstate migration during the late 1970s demonstrates the model's utility.
    • The proposed framework effectively merges past demographic and economic modeling traditions.
    • The model accounts for the influence of evolving economic landscapes on migration patterns.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed framework offers a robust approach to spatial economic-demographic forecasting.
    • This integrated model enhances the predictive power for migration studies.
    • It represents a significant advancement in spatial interaction analysis by merging distinct modeling paradigms.