Racial and ethnic succession in four cities.

Area of Science:

• Urban Studies
• Sociology
• Demography

Background:

• Urban residential change is often explained by succession models.
• Determinants of neighborhood succession remain incompletely understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict neighborhood racial composition based on historical characteristics.
• To test ecological and filtering models of urban succession.

Main Methods:

• Utilized longitudinal census tract data from four U.S. cities.
• Employed regression analysis to model racial composition changes over time.

Main Results:

• Found support for certain aspects of ecological and filtering succession models.
• Identified prior racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and physical traits as predictors.
• Observed significant variability in succession processes across different urban contexts.

Conclusions:

• Neighborhood succession is influenced by historical neighborhood attributes.
• The applicability of succession models is context-dependent and not universal.