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Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: a demographic-economic approach.

A M Isserman, D A Plane, P A Rogerson

    Journal of the American Statistical Association
    |June 1, 1985
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Forecasting interstate migration in the United States is challenging due to data limitations. A new demographic-economic model improves accuracy by linking migration rates to economic conditions, reducing forecasting errors by 20%.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Economics
    • Geospatial Analysis

    Background:

    • Accurate modeling of interstate migration is crucial for policy and planning.
    • Existing migration data limitations hinder time-series forecasting approaches.
    • Current demographic projections may not fully capture economic influences on migration.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop and evaluate a novel demographic-economic model for forecasting U.S. interstate migration.
    • To integrate economic factors into migration modeling compatible with available data.
    • To improve the accuracy of net migration forecasts at the state level.

    Main Methods:

    • Combined demographic and economic approaches to migration forecasting.
    • Modeled migration rates as a function of changing economic conditions.
    Keywords:
    AmericasDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEconomic ConditionsEconomic FactorsEconomic ModelEstimation TechnicsHuman ResourcesLabor ForceMacroeconomic FactorsMethodological StudiesMigrationMigration, InternalModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastResearch MethodologySocioeconomic FactorsTime FactorsUnited States

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Utilized recently constructed migration data based on income tax returns.

    • Main Results:

    • The demographic-economic approach demonstrated a 20% lower total error compared to standard demographic projections.
    • The model successfully forecasts net migration by state for labor-force age cohorts.
    • Economic conditions were found to be significant drivers of migration rate changes.

    Conclusions:

    • The integrated demographic-economic model offers a more accurate method for forecasting interstate migration.
    • This approach overcomes limitations of purely demographic models by incorporating economic responsiveness.
    • The findings have implications for refining population projections and resource allocation strategies.