Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: a demographic-economic approach

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Economics
• Geospatial Analysis

Background:

• Accurate modeling of interstate migration is crucial for policy and planning.
• Existing migration data limitations hinder time-series forecasting approaches.
• Current demographic projections may not fully capture economic influences on migration.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and evaluate a novel demographic-economic model for forecasting U.S. interstate migration.
• To integrate economic factors into migration modeling compatible with available data.
• To improve the accuracy of net migration forecasts at the state level.

Main Methods:

• Combined demographic and economic approaches to migration forecasting.
• Modeled migration rates as a function of changing economic conditions.
• Utilized recently constructed migration data based on income tax returns.

Main Results:

• The demographic-economic approach demonstrated a 20% lower total error compared to standard demographic projections.
• The model successfully forecasts net migration by state for labor-force age cohorts.
• Economic conditions were found to be significant drivers of migration rate changes.

Conclusions:

• The integrated demographic-economic model offers a more accurate method for forecasting interstate migration.
• This approach overcomes limitations of purely demographic models by incorporating economic responsiveness.
• The findings have implications for refining population projections and resource allocation strategies.