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Related Experiment Videos

Simulating alternative social security responses to the demographic transition.

A J Auerbach, L J Kotlikoff

    National Tax Journal
    |June 1, 1985
    PubMed
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    Baby booms and busts significantly impact U.S. economic welfare and saving rates. A prolonged baby bust is predicted to improve long-run welfare due to a declining dependency ratio.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Demography
    • Public Policy

    Background:

    • Demographic shifts, such as baby booms and busts, have profound economic consequences.
    • Understanding these demographic changes is crucial for effective social security policy.
    • The United States has experienced significant demographic fluctuations impacting its economy.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the dynamic economic effects of baby booms and busts in the U.S.
    • To examine the interaction between demographic changes and social security policy.
    • To assess the long-run welfare implications of demographic trends.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized a perfect foresight life cycle simulation model.
    • Simulated the economic impacts of varying demographic scenarios (booms and busts).
    Keywords:
    AmericasBaby BoomBaby BustCyclic AnalysisDemographic EffectivenessDemographic FactorsDependency BurdenDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEconomic FactorsFamily PlanningFamily Planning Program EvaluationFamily Planning ProgramsFertilityFinancial ActivitiesFinancing, GovernmentMicroeconomic FactorsModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPolicyPopulationPopulation DynamicsSocial PolicySocial SecuritySocial WelfareSocioeconomic FactorsUnited States

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Incorporated social security policy as a variable in the economic model.

    • Main Results:

    • Demographic changes exert considerable short- and long-run effects on saving rates and factor returns.
    • A prolonged baby bust is projected to lead to long-run welfare improvements.
    • Welfare gains from a baby bust persist even without policy adjustments.

    Conclusions:

    • The reduction in the dependency ratio, driven by fewer children per worker, outweighs the increase in retirees per worker.
    • Demographic trends alone can foster economic welfare improvements.
    • Social security policy can further influence, but is not essential for, realizing welfare gains from demographic shifts.