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A model for rural out-migration at household level.

S N Singh, R C Yadava, H L Sharma

    Janasamkhya
    |June 1, 1985
    PubMed
    Summary

    A new probability model estimates migration numbers using survey data. This research provides insights into migration patterns in Indian villages based on specific assumptions and parameter estimations.

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Statistical Modeling

    Background:

    • Migration is a complex demographic phenomenon influenced by various factors.
    • Accurate modeling of migration is crucial for understanding population dynamics and resource allocation.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To propose and apply a probability model for estimating the number of migrants.
    • To utilize survey data from Indian villages to test the model's applicability.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a probability model with several parameters.
    • Estimation of model parameters based on stated assumptions.
    • Application of the model to a dataset from a 1978 survey of 3,514 Indian households.

    Main Results:

    • The study successfully applied the proposed probability model to real-world migration data.
    Keywords:
    AsiaDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesFamily And HouseholdHouseholdsIndiaMethodological StudiesMigrationModels, TheoreticalPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsProbabilityResearch MethodologyRural PopulationSouthern AsiaStatistical StudiesStudies

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  • Parameter estimation techniques were employed to analyze the migration patterns observed in the survey.
  • The model's performance was evaluated using data from villages categorized by their development status (semi-urban, remote, growth centers).

    • Conclusions:

    • The proposed probability model offers a framework for analyzing migration numbers.
    • The application to Indian village data demonstrates the model's potential utility in demographic research.
    • Further refinement of parameter estimation could enhance the model's predictive power.