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Published on: September 16, 2022
[Probability evaluation of yearly infant mortality]
Insights
Beck's coefficient offers a reliable infant mortality rate index by accounting for child migration. This method refines yearly infant mortality data using migration balance corrections.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Biostatistics
Context:
- Infant mortality rate (IMR) calculation is crucial for public health surveillance.
- Existing IMR indexes often lack accuracy due to migration complexities.
- Accurate IMR data is vital for effective child health policy development.
Purpose:
- To critically evaluate common infant mortality rate indexes.
- To introduce and validate Beck's coefficient as a superior IMR index.
- To refine IMR calculations by incorporating migration data.
Summary:
- Presents a critical survey of infant mortality rate indexes.
- Introduces Beck's coefficient, an improved index using migration balance.
- Details corrections using lower and upper elementary aggregates for migration data.
- Applies stochastic evaluation for final infant mortality results.
- Illustrates the methodology with Bulgarian demographic data.
Impact:
- Provides a more accurate method for calculating annual infant mortality rates.
- Enhances the reliability of demographic and public health statistics.
- Offers a refined tool for international comparisons of child mortality.
Abstract:
A critical survey of the most commonly used indexes of infant mortality rates by year is presented. "The most reliable index per year is Beck's coefficient. It improves with the migration balance of the external and internal migration of children which is observed in accordance with 'elementary aggregates'. The number of live-born children is corrected by two-thirds of the migration balance in the lower elementary aggregate. The number of children born during the previous year who have survived until the beginning of the current one is corrected by one-third of the migration balance in the upper elementary aggregate. These corrections can be improved by the ratio of the migration balances in the lower and upper elementary aggregates. The final results for the infantile mortality are evaluated stochastically." The method is illustrated using Bulgarian data. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)
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