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A multistate Markov chain model for evaluating a sterilization policy.

S Biswas, T K Pachal

    Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift
    |January 1, 1987
    PubMed
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    This study models family size in India using a multistate Markov chain. It calculates the long-term probabilities of couples having a specific number of children, considering fertility and mortality.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Mathematical Biology
    • Population Studies

    Background:

    • Understanding population dynamics is crucial for policy-making.
    • Fertility and mortality rates significantly influence family size.
    • Previous models may not fully capture the complexities of varying child survival.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop a mathematical model for predicting family size.
    • To analyze the impact of fertility and mortality on the number of surviving children.
    • To estimate long-term probabilities of achieving specific family sizes in India.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a multistate Markov chain model.
    • Incorporation of varying fertility and mortality rates.
    • Calculation of asymptotic probabilities for family size outcomes.
    Keywords:
    AsiaDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesEvaluationEvaluation MethodologyEvaluation ReportFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFamily PlanningFamily SizeFertilityIndiaInfant MortalityLength Of LifeMarkov ChainMortalityPolicyPopulationPopulation DynamicsProbabilityResearch MethodologySouthern AsiaStatistical StudiesSterilization, SexualStudiesSurvivorship

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    Main Results:

    • The model provides a framework for analyzing family size dynamics.
    • Asymptotic probabilities for different numbers of children were determined.
    • The study offers insights into population structure based on reproductive patterns.

    Conclusions:

    • The Markov chain model effectively estimates long-term family size probabilities.
    • Fertility and mortality dynamics are key determinants of population structure.
    • This research provides valuable data for demographic analysis in India.