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Updated: Aug 9, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Economic development, population and primacy
Abstract:
"This paper investigates the relationship between economic development and primacy advanced by El-Shakhs, Mera and others, and finds no statistically significant link when obvious demographic influences are taken into account. Three variables (national population, the urban population share, and a Latin American dummy) explain 40% of the variation in primacy in a sample of 116 countries (including 82 developing countries). Economic factors do not appear to be important. Demography may be more influential than economics in attempts to explain primacy."
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