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Economic development, population and primacy.

H W Richardson, G Schwartz

    Regional Studies
    |December 1, 1988
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Economic development does not significantly influence urban primacy. Demographic factors like national population and urban share are key predictors, explaining 40% of variation in urban primacy across 116 countries.

    Area of Science:

    • Urban Studies
    • Economic Geography
    • Demography

    Background:

    • Primacy, the dominance of a single city, is often linked to economic development.
    • Previous theories by El-Shakhs, Mera, and others suggest a strong economic basis for urban primacy.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To investigate the empirical relationship between economic development and urban primacy.
    • To determine the influence of demographic versus economic factors on urban primacy.

    Main Methods:

    • Statistical analysis of a global dataset.
    • Regression analysis using national population, urban population share, and a Latin American dummy variable.

    Main Results:

    • No statistically significant link was found between economic development and urban primacy.
    Keywords:
    CritiqueDemographic FactorsDemographyDeveloping CountriesEconomic DevelopmentEconomic FactorsGeographic FactorsMacroeconomic FactorsPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsSocial SciencesSpatial DistributionUrban PopulationUrban Spatial DistributionUrbanization

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  • Demographic variables (national population, urban share) explained 40% of the variation in primacy.
  • Economic factors were found to be unimportant in explaining primacy.
  • Conclusions:

    • Demographic factors are more influential than economic factors in explaining urban primacy.
    • The economic development theory of urban primacy is not supported by this data.