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Explaining first marriage trends in Australia.

M Bracher

    Journal of the Australian Population Association
    |November 1, 1990
    PubMed
    Summary

    Australian marriage rates have declined since the 1960s, starting with older age groups. Economic factors, particularly employment, significantly influence these marriage trends, not just societal norms.

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    Area of Science:

    • Sociology
    • Economics
    • Demography

    Background:

    • First marriage trends in Australia show a significant decline.
    • This decline began in the late 1960s among older age groups and has since affected younger demographics.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To provide updated estimates of Australian first marriage trends since the 1920s.
    • To analyze the drivers of recent changes in nuptiality, testing economic theories.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of historical first marriage statistics.
    • Time-series regression analyses examining economic factors and employment status over the past twenty years.

    Main Results:

    • The decline in marriage rates started in the late 1960s, affecting older individuals first.
    Keywords:
    Age FactorsAustraliaDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEconomic ConditionsEconomic FactorsMacroeconomic FactorsMarriageMarriage AgeMarriage PatternsNuptialityOceaniaPopulationPopulation Characteristics

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  • Becker's economic theory of marriage did not successfully explain recent trends.
  • First marriage rates in Australia over the last two decades correlate strongly with economic factors, especially employment status.

    • Conclusions:

    • Economic factors, particularly employment, are primary determinants of recent Australian marriage trends.
    • Neither normative shifts nor the economic rationality proposed by Becker's theory are the main drivers of changing nuptiality.