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[A multivariate model for first births].

J Vermunt

    Maandstatistiek Van De Bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)
    |May 1, 1991
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study models individual differences in first birth timing using economic and sociological theories. Key factors influencing the probability of remaining childless for women include age at first birth and educational level.

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Sociology
    • Economics

    Context:

    • Fertility studies often examine societal trends, but individual-level predictors of first birth timing require nuanced modeling.
    • Existing economic and sociological fertility theories provide a framework for understanding diverse reproductive decisions.
    • Data from the Netherlands Fertility Survey allows for detailed analysis of life-course events.

    Purpose:

    • To construct a multivariate statistical model explaining individual variations in the timing of first births.
    • To identify significant socio-economic and demographic predictors of first birth and childlessness.
    • To develop a tool for calculating the probability of remaining childless based on individual life-cycle characteristics.

    Summary:

    • A multivariate model was developed using data from the Netherlands Fertility Survey.
    Keywords:
    Age FactorsDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEconomic FactorsEducational StatusEmployment StatusEstimation TechnicsEuropeFamily And HouseholdFamily ResearchFertilityFertility MeasurementsFirst BirthLife CycleModels, TheoreticalNetherlandsPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPregnancy HistoryResearch MethodologySocioeconomic FactorsSocioeconomic StatusWestern Europe

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  • Significant explanatory variables include age at first birth, household position, labor force participation, educational level, and the period of first birth.
  • The model's parameters enable the calculation of childlessness probability for women based on their life-cycle stage.

    • Impact:

    • Provides a quantitative tool for policymakers and researchers to understand fertility patterns.
    • Enhances theoretical understanding of the interplay between socio-economic factors and reproductive behavior.
    • Offers insights into individual-level determinants of family formation and childbearing decisions.