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Sensitivity analysis in a multidimensional demographic projection model with a two-sex algorithm.

P Ekamper, N Keilman

    Mathematical Population Studies
    |January 1, 1993
    PubMed
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    This study models population changes using a multidimensional projection model, revealing that marriage market dynamics like competition and substitution are accurately represented. The findings highlight the model

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Mathematical Modeling
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • Population projection models are crucial for demographic analysis.
    • Existing models may not fully capture complex social interactions like marriage dynamics.
    • A multidimensional approach is needed for accurate population forecasting.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To derive formulas for the impact of occurrence/exposure rate changes in a multidimensional projection model.
    • To analyze the sensitivity of population vector elements to these changes.
    • To assess the model's ability to represent marriage market mechanisms.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed a multidimensional projection model incorporating sex, age, and marital status.
    • Integrated a two-sex algorithm for marital consistency (marriages, divorces, widow(er)s).
    Keywords:
    Age DistributionAge FactorsDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDivorceEstimation TechnicsEuropeMarital StatusMarriageMarriage PatternsMate SelectionModels, TheoreticalNetherlandsNuptialityPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation ProjectionResearch MethodologySex DistributionSex FactorsWestern EuropeWidowed

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Applied sensitivity functions and elasticities to Dutch demographic data (1980-1984).

    • Main Results:

    • Quantified the effect of changes in occurrence/exposure rates on population vector elements.
    • Demonstrated consistency in marriage and divorce numbers between sexes.
    • Validated the model's accurate representation of marriage market competition and substitution effects.

    Conclusions:

    • The multidimensional projection model effectively captures demographic changes.
    • The two-sex algorithm ensures internal consistency for marital events.
    • Marriage market mechanisms are well-represented, improving population projection accuracy.