Self-selection and internal migration in the United States.

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Sociology
• Demography

Background:

• Internal migration is a significant demographic phenomenon in the United States.
• Understanding the drivers of migration, particularly skill-based migration, is crucial for regional economic development.
• The Roy model provides a theoretical framework for analyzing self-selection in migration based on skill returns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically analyze internal migration flows in the United States.
• To investigate the role of regional differences in the returns to skills as a determinant of migration.
• To examine how skill-mismatched individuals select destinations offering higher skill rewards.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY).
• Applied the conceptual framework of the Roy model for theoretical guidance.
• Conducted an empirical analysis of interstate migration flows and their relationship with skill returns.

Main Results:

• Interstate differences in the returns to skills significantly determine the volume and skill composition of internal migration.
• Individuals experiencing a mismatch between their skills and their current state's reward structure are more likely to migrate.
• Migrants tend to relocate to states that offer higher compensation for their specific skill sets.

Conclusions:

• Regional variations in skill returns are a primary driver of internal migration in the US.
• Skill-mismatched individuals are key actors in migration, seeking states with favorable economic opportunities for their expertise.
• The findings support the Roy model's prediction of positive self-selection in migration based on skill-specific returns.