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[Growth and demography in the industrialized countries]
Economie Prospective Internationale
|January 1, 1992
Summary
Demographic aging in developed nations will decrease economic growth due to lower savings and productivity. Europe may adapt more easily than the US or Japan, relying on productivity gains.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Demography
- Economic Policy
Context:
- Developed countries face significant demographic shifts due to aging populations.
- Current economic structures in developed nations are unprepared for the consequences of aging.
- Projected reductions in working populations pose a challenge to economic output.
Purpose:
- To assess the economic consequences of demographic aging in developed countries.
- To analyze the impact of aging populations on long-term economic growth.
- To forecast potential output considering demographic changes and technological advancements.
Summary:
- Demographic aging leads to reduced savings ratios, increased inequality, and challenges in financing pension schemes.
- Forecasting potential output reveals a projected decline in economic growth for the United States and Japan.
- Technological advancements since 1973 are considered in growth projections.
- Europe's economic growth, historically driven by productivity gains, may adapt more readily to demographic changes.
Impact:
- Significant economic challenges including lower savings, rising inequality, and strained pension systems.
- Projected decrease in long-term economic growth rates for major developed economies.
- Potential for easier adaptation in Europe due to a stronger foundation in productivity-driven growth.