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Aboriginal population prospects.

A Gray, H Tesfaghiorghis

    Journal of the Australian Population Association
    |November 1, 1993
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Australian census data reveals discrepancies in Aboriginal population estimates. Fertility rates increased in the late 1980s, while under-enumeration affected specific age groups, requiring adjustments for accurate demographic analysis.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Indigenous Studies
    • Population Health

    Background:

    • Past projections of the Aboriginal population size and structure may not accurately reflect current demographic trends.
    • Understanding population dynamics is crucial for effective policy and resource allocation for Indigenous communities.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To assess discrepancies between Australian census data (1986, 1991) and previous Aboriginal population projections.
    • To analyze changes in factors influencing Aboriginal population dynamics, particularly mortality.
    • To estimate necessary adjustments for under-enumeration in census data.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of Australian census data from 1986 and 1991.
    • Comparison of census figures with historical population projections.
    Keywords:
    Age DistributionAge FactorsAustraliaCensusCensus MethodsComparative StudiesCultural BackgroundData AdjustmentData AnalysisData QualityDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesError SourcesEstimation TechnicsEthnic GroupsEvaluationEvaluation MethodologyFertilityIndigenous PopulationMeasurementMortalityOceaniaPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation Dynamics--determinantsPopulation ProjectionPopulation StatisticsResearch MethodologyStudiesUndercount

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  • Examination of mortality data and fertility trends.
  • Estimation of under-enumeration adjustments for specific age groups.

    • Main Results:

    • Evidence of under-enumeration of the Aboriginal population in specific age brackets in the 1991 Census, consistent with previous findings.
    • Estimated adjustments are required to correct for identified census deficiencies.
    • Aboriginal fertility rates showed an increase during the latter half of the 1980s.

    Conclusions:

    • The study highlights persistent issues with Aboriginal population under-enumeration in Australian censuses.
    • Divergence between observed demographic changes and parameters used in prior projections is noted.
    • Increased fertility rates necessitate revised demographic models for the Aboriginal population.