Assessment of diurnal variability of peak expiratory flow in stable asthmatics

Five daily readings of peak expiratory flow (PEF) were obtained for three days on 100 patients with chronic stable asthma. The variability of PEF was calculated as the amplitude percent mean (A%M) from the readings obtained on the third day, and compared to previously reported data from 152 healthy Indian adults. Patients with severe asthma exhibited significantly higher A%M than patients with both mild and moderate asthma (p < 0.05), but there was considerable overlap across disease categories. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve plotted to assess the performance of PEF variability as a discriminator in diagnosing asthma was 0.826, with best discrimination at a value of 12.5 (sensitivity 0.640, specificity 0.941). Using a cut-off value of 16.5 (as proposed earlier by us) improved specificity to 0.987 but reduced sensitivity to 0.510. Using a traditional cut-off of 20, specificity remained almost unchanged (0.993), but sensitivity dropped further to 0.440. Thus A%M>16.5 is a useful marker of bronchial asthma in epidemiological studies in India. However, its use in population screening, clinical diagnosis, or in the assessment of the severity of asthma in individual patients has serious limitations because of poor sensitivity.