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Updated: Sep 28, 2026

Assessment of Vascular Function in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease
Published on: June 16, 2014
Blood pressure and decline in kidney function: findings from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP)
J Hunter Young1, Michael J Klag, Paul Muntner
1Department of Medicine, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA. jhyoung@jhmi.edu
Insights
High blood pressure (BP) is linked to worsening kidney function in older adults. Systolic blood pressure is the primary driver of this decline, independent of other factors.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Geriatrics
- Cardiovascular Medicine
Background:
- The relationship between blood pressure (BP) and kidney function decline in the elderly is not fully understood.
- Identifying the specific BP component responsible for kidney disease is crucial for targeted interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between baseline BP and incident kidney function decline in older adults.
- To determine which BP component poses the highest risk for kidney disease progression.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 2181 participants from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP) placebo arm.
- Kidney function decline defined as a serum creatinine increase ≥ 0.4 mg/dl over 5 years.
- Statistical models adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease history.
Main Results:
- Higher levels of all BP components (systolic, diastolic, pulse, mean arterial pressure) were associated with an increased risk of kidney function decline.
- Systolic blood pressure demonstrated the strongest independent association with kidney function decline.
- The relative risk for the highest vs. lowest quartile of systolic BP was 2.44 (1.67–3.56).
Conclusions:
- Systolic blood pressure is a significant and independent predictor of kidney function decline in older individuals.
- Elevated systolic BP poses a substantial risk for developing kidney disease in the elderly population.
- Interventions targeting systolic BP may be key in preventing kidney disease progression in this demographic.
Abstract:
The association between BP and decline in kidney function in older persons and the BP component most responsible for kidney disease are unknown. This study investigated the relationship between baseline BP and an incident decline in kidney function among 2181 men and women enrolled in the placebo arm of the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP). A decline in kidney function was defined as an increase in serum creatinine equal to or greater than 0.4 mg/dl over 5 yr of follow-up. The incidence and relative risk of a decline in kidney function increased at higher levels of BP for all BP components, independent of age, gender, ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, and history of cardiovascular disease. Systolic BP imparted the highest risk of decline in kidney function. The adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) associated with the highest compared with the lowest quartile of BP was 2.44 (1.67 to 3.56) for systolic; 1.29 (0.87 to 1.91) for diastolic; 1.80 (1.21 to 2.66) for pulse; and 2.03 (1.39 to 2.94) for mean arterial pressure. The risk associated with systolic BP remained strong in models containing other BP components, while diastolic, pulse, and mean arterial pressure had no significant association with a decline in kidney function in models containing systolic BP. Therefore, systolic BP is a strong, independent predictor of a decline in kidney function among older persons with isolated systolic hypertension.
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Hypertension (High blood pressure)
Hypertension occurs when blood pressure readings consistently exceed the normal range. It is diagnosed when systolic blood pressure (the top number, indicating pressure while the heart beats)...