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Enhanced surveillance of primary measles mumps and rubella (MMR) immunisation in Wales
Brendan W Mason1, Daniel R h Thomas, Roland L Salmon
1Public Health Laboratory Service, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (Wales), Abton House, Wedal Road, CF14 3QX, Cardiff, UK. brendan.mason@phls.wales.nhs.uk
Abstract:
In England and Wales routinely available data measure uptake of the measles mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine at 2 years. This results in a delay in detecting change in uptake of the vaccine, which is scheduled at 12 months of age. The predictive value of uptake at 15-17 months is limited by the greater variability in uptake between quarters at the younger age. This can be overcome by presenting the data as a four-quarter annual rolling average. Uptake of the MMR vaccine at 2 years of age in Wales is predicted to stabilise at around 84% in the first three quarters of 2002.
Insights
Measuring measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake at 2 years delays detection of changes. Using a four-quarter rolling average improves prediction accuracy for MMR vaccine coverage in young children.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Vaccinology
- Pediatric Medicine
Background:
- Routinely collected data in England and Wales assess measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake at 2 years of age.
- This measurement timing creates a lag in identifying shifts in vaccine uptake, as the MMR vaccine is recommended at 12 months.
- Uptake data at 15-17 months shows significant quarterly variability, limiting its predictive power for 2-year-old vaccination rates.
Purpose of the Study:
- To address the delay in detecting changes in MMR vaccine uptake.
- To improve the predictive accuracy of vaccine uptake data.
- To propose a method for more timely and reliable monitoring of MMR vaccination coverage.
Main Methods:
- The study proposes utilizing a four-quarter annual rolling average for vaccine uptake data.
- This method aims to smooth out quarterly fluctuations and provide a more stable trend.
- Analysis focuses on predicting MMR vaccine uptake at 2 years of age using this averaging technique.
Main Results:
- The four-quarter rolling average method is presented as a way to overcome the limitations of quarterly variability in younger age groups.
- Predictions indicate that MMR vaccine uptake at 2 years of age in Wales is expected to stabilize around 84%.
- This stabilization is projected for the first three quarters of 2002.
Conclusions:
- Implementing a four-quarter annual rolling average enhances the timeliness and reliability of MMR vaccine uptake monitoring.
- This approach offers a more accurate prediction of vaccination coverage trends.
- The findings suggest a stabilization of MMR vaccine uptake in Wales around 84% in early 2002.
