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Related Experiment Videos

Interevent relationships and judgment under uncertainty: structure determines strategy.

Alan G Sanfey1, Reid Hastie

  • 1Psychology Department, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA. asanfey@princeton.edu

Memory & Cognition
|November 27, 2002
PubMed
Summary

People flexibly use absolute or relative frequencies when judging event likelihood. Increased complexity favors absolute frequencies, while simpler structures may rely on relative frequencies for predictions.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Making
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Judgments of event likelihood often rely on frequency information.
  • A key debate concerns whether absolute or relative frequencies are primarily used.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the conditions under which people utilize absolute versus relative frequencies for likelihood judgments.
  • To understand cognitive flexibility in using different frequency types for predictions.

Main Methods:

  • Participants evaluated candidate win probabilities based on simulated poll data.
  • Stimulus configurations varied in absolute and relative win frequencies.
  • Event structure complexity was manipulated to assess inferential demands.

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Main Results:

  • Adults demonstrated cognitive flexibility, relying on either absolute or relative frequencies.
  • Specific stimulus configurations prompted reliance on absolute frequencies.
  • Other configurations elicited judgments based on relative frequencies.
  • Higher relational complexity and inferential demands increased reliance on absolute frequencies.

Conclusions:

  • Cognitive processes for likelihood judgments are adaptable.
  • The structure of event information influences the type of frequency relied upon.
  • Decision-making strategies shift based on task complexity and required inferences.