A model for costs of stroke services

In industrialised countries, stroke is one of the most common causes of death and handicap, and the costs for stroke services are high. However, rational planning of stroke services and estimation of the costs of their provision are complex, even when generic pathways for stroke diagnosis and treatment are well understood. The reason is the chronic nature of cerebro-vascular disease and the cumulative effect of disabling brain injury. In this paper we describe development of a computer model for estimating the costs of stroke services, intended for use by planners and purchasers of stroke care services. The model operates by incrementing patients' experience of stroke events and their outcomes in annual steps, and is calibrated using Swedish data. We demonstrate the cost consequences by simulating three different policy changes. The model facilitates comparisons between stroke prevention, treatment and rehabilitation, and we conclude that by combining the three policy options it is possible to reduce the costs for stroke services markedly.