The match-mismatch model and panic patients' accuracy in predicting naturally occurring panic attacks

The match-mismatch model of panic states that panic disorder patients tend to overestimate the probability of panic prior to engaging in a fear-provoking situation. Furthermore, patients are expected to become more accurate in predicting panic over subsequent occasions of exposure. We tested the model with naturally occurring panic attacks. Patients rated the probability of a panic attack in the morning, and these ratings were compared to the actual occurrence of panic that day. Ratings were collected daily in a baseline period before treatment, during treatment, and again for 2 weeks after treatment. The results confirmed that panic disorder patients tend to overpredict the likelihood of panic. However, patients did not become more accurate in their predictions over time. In fact, overprediction bias increased because expectancy of panic remained stable, in spite of the decline of the frequency of panic from pre- to post-test. Thus, over a short course of therapy panic patients tend to persist in overestimating the chance that panic may occur. At baseline, expectancy of panic and the tendency to overpredict were not associated with other aspects of the symptomatology. Neither expectancy nor overprediction bias was predictive of treatment outcome. Finally, improvement in treatment was not associated with a decreased expectancy of panic.