Air pollution in Athens basin and health risk assessment

An inventory of air pollution sources within the Athens basin is carried out for the years 1989, 1992 and 1998 and the results are inputted in a climatological model for predicting ambient concentrations. Despite of the significant growth in the number of road vehicles and the deteriorating traffic, the emissions and ambient concentrations of fine particulates, CO, NOx and VOC appear to remain reasonably constant over for the period 1989 to 1998, while these of SO2 and Pb are reduced, mainly due to the renewal of vehicle fleet, the use of catalytic technologies and the improved quality of the used fuel. The results further indicate that for CO, NOx and VOC the major source is road traffic, while for PM2.5 and SO2 both space heating and traffic share responsibility. The air pollutant concentrations monitored by the network of 11 stations are reviewed and statistics related to air quality guidelines are presented. As fine particulate levels are not monitored, approximate PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations are derived from black smoke ones on basis of experimentally determined conversion factors. The computed and monitored air pollution levels are compared and found in reasonable agreement. The results of the above analysis show that the levels of all 'classical' pollutants, with the exception of SO2 and Pb, exceed significantly the WHO guidelines and are thus expected to exert a significant health impact. The latter could be quantified in relation to the PM2.5 or PM10 levels on the basis of risk assessment information developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The results show that the existing levels of fine particle concentrations in Athens increase significantly the mortality and morbidity, and reduce the average longevity of the entire population from 1.3 to 1.7 years.