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Related Experiment Videos

Performance evaluation of a model describing the effects of temperature, water activity, pH and lactic acid

L A Mellefont1, T A McMeekin, T Ross

  • 1Centre for Food Safety and Quality, School of Agricultural Science, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-54, Hobart 7001, Tasmania, Australia. Lyndal.Mellefont@utas.edu.au

International Journal of Food Microbiology
|December 31, 2002
PubMed
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A new square root model accurately predicts Escherichia coli growth, outperforming existing models. It accounts for lactic acid, improving predictions in foods like meat.

Area of Science:

  • Food microbiology
  • Predictive modeling
  • Microbial growth kinetics

Background:

  • Escherichia coli is a significant foodborne pathogen.
  • Accurate prediction of microbial growth is crucial for food safety.
  • Existing models for E. coli growth have limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a new square root-type model for predicting Escherichia coli growth.
  • To compare the performance of the new model against existing predictive models.
  • To assess the impact of environmental factors like temperature, water activity, pH, and lactic acid on E. coli growth.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a square root-type growth model incorporating temperature, water activity, pH, and lactic acid.
  • Validated the model using 1025 literature-reported growth rate estimates, excluding 215 data points.

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  • Compared model predictions to literature data using bias and accuracy factors and residual analysis.
  • Benchmarked the new model against the Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP) and Food MicroModel (FMM).

    • Main Results:

    • The developed model showed good predictive performance with a bias factor of 0.92 and an accuracy factor of 1.29.
    • The model accurately predicted E. coli growth rates across diverse conditions, including liquid media and various foods.
    • The new model generally outperformed PMP and FMM, especially for shorter generation times (≤5 hours).
    • Inclusion of lactic acid improved model performance, particularly for predicting growth in meat products.

    Conclusions:

    • The new square root-type model provides a robust and accurate tool for predicting Escherichia coli growth.
    • The model's ability to incorporate lactic acid enhances its applicability to real-world food scenarios, especially meat.
    • This model offers an improvement over existing predictive models for E. coli, contributing to enhanced food safety strategies.