Use of excretory urogram information in the solution of the renal cyst/tumor/cortical nodule problem

A decision analysis was made of the choice of angiography or needle aspiration to solve the cyst/tumor/cortical nodule diagnostic problem. With a test panel of 43 proved cases, the urogram diagnoses and decisions made at the time of actual patient management were compared with those made by a radiologist viewing the test panel as unknowns. The test panel radiologist based his recommendations on his subjective probability estimates of the three diagnoses in each case. Results indicate that the use of subjective probabilities increases the frequency of specific diagnoses and decreases inappropriate choice of angiography or aspiration.