Predictors of Attrition from an Outpatient Chemical Dependency Program

This study investigated differences between completers and noncompleters of an intensive outpatient substance abuse treatment program to identify key predictors of attrition. Participants (n = 138) completed a comprehensive intake/assessment package that included the Addiction Severity Index as a precursor to participation in the program. Discriminant function analyses (DFA) suggested that ASI composite scores and severity ratings were not useful predictors. However, analysis of individual items was useful in identifying "red flags" as predictors for treatment attrition. The subsequent DFA identified the following variables as significant predictors: Hispanic ethnicity, absence of a professional skill, shorter time since last hospitalization, cocaine or cannabis use in the last 30 days, total number of family members with drug problems, presence of emotional abuse in last 30 days, concern with family problems, and number of family group meetings that family members attended. These red flags can serve the important function of providing clinicians with enough information to intervene early with patients at risk for treatment dropout.