Measuring uncertainty in complex decision analysis models
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Updated: Sep 27, 2026

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
1The Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA. gp@rhu.edu
Abstract:
Prediction models used in support of clinical and health policy decision making often need to consider the course of a disease over an extended period of time, and draw evidence from a broad knowledge base, including epidemiologic cohort and case control studies, randomized clinical trials, expert opinions, and more. This paper is a brief introduction to these complex decision models, their relation to Bayesian decision theory, and the tools typically used to describe the uncertainties involved. Concepts are illustrated throughout via a simplified tutorial.
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