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Hindsight and confirmation biases in an exercise in telepathy
1Department of Psychology, Muhlenberg College, Allentown, PA 18104-5586, USA.
Psychological Reports
|January 18, 2003
Summary
Cognitive biases like hindsight bias may explain paranormal beliefs. Participants showed better performance and confirmation bias when allowed to see results before committing, linking these biases to paranormal belief.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Paranormal Belief Research
- Social Psychology
Background:
- Belief in the paranormal is widespread.
- Cognitive biases may contribute to paranormal experiences.
- Understanding these biases is crucial for explaining paranormal belief.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of hindsight and confirmation biases in paranormal belief.
- To examine how cognitive biases influence performance in a simulated telepathy task.
- To explore the relationship between paranormal belief and specific cognitive biases.
Main Methods:
- 48 undergraduate students participated in a card-guessing telepathy task.
- Two conditions were used: Hindsight-possible (feedback before response) and Control (response before feedback).
- Participants completed the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale.
Main Results:
- Participants performed significantly better in the Hindsight-possible condition, indicating hindsight bias.
- A correlation between paranormal belief and performance was found in the Hindsight-possible condition, suggesting confirmation bias.
- No such correlation was observed in the Control condition.
Conclusions:
- Hindsight and confirmation biases may play a role in paranormal beliefs.
- The study suggests that cognitive biases can inflate the perceived accuracy of paranormal experiences.
- Further research is needed to elucidate the complex interplay between cognitive biases and paranormal belief.