[Cost-benefit analysis to substituting natural gas for coal project in large Chinese cities]

Since China's large cities were faced with serious coal-smoke pollution with PM10 and SO2 as the main pollutants, natural gas is becoming one of the most attractive clean replacers of coal. To clarify the wide disputation and doubt on the rationality of burning natural gas instead of coal, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of urban natural gas substitution projects in Beijing and Chongqing was done respectively, in which, the health benefit was carefully estimated with epidemical dose-response function as the main external benefit. The final result shows that in large cities with intensively concentrated population and economic activities, natural gas consumption as municipal civil energy has obvious priority in terms of large environmental benefit from reducing non-point and low-altitude air pollutant concentration. This paper finally recommends that market oriented system reform in natural gas production and retailing system should be considered.