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Forecasting the nursing home population.

Darius Lakdawalla1, Dana P Goldman, Jay Bhattacharya

  • 1RAND Health, Santa Monica, California, USA. darius@rand.org

Medical Care
|January 25, 2003
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Future US nursing home populations will grow due to increasing disability rates among younger cohorts. This trend is projected to reverse decades of declining institutionalization, leading to a 10-25% rise in nursing home residents.

Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Public Health
  • Demography

Background:

  • Historically, rates of disability and institutionalization among the elderly in the US have been declining.
  • Recent trends suggest a potential reversal of these long-term declines.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To forecast the future growth of the US nursing home population.
  • To model nursing home residence based on projected trends in disability and marriage.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys (1992-1996).
  • Modeled nursing home residence as a function of disability status, marital status, and demographic covariates.
  • Developed joint forecasts for marriage and disability to predict nursing home residence.

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Main Results:

  • Younger cohorts are predicted to experience higher rates of institutionalization compared to older cohorts.
  • The nursing home population is expected to be 10-25% larger than predicted by extrapolating past declines in disability.
  • A reversal of the declining trend in institutionalization rates is anticipated within the next decade.

Conclusions:

  • Rising disability levels among younger cohorts approaching old age are driving the predicted increase in institutionalization.
  • The study forecasts a substantial rise in the incidence of institutionalization among the elderly.
  • This reversal challenges the assumption of continued declines in nursing home utilization.