Veterinary medical manpower: supply-demand projections to 2020

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Medicine
• Health Workforce Analysis

Background:

• Estimating future healthcare professional supply is crucial for policy planning.
• Previous studies indicated potential shortages in various medical fields.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a supply projection model for veterinarians in the United States.
• To compare projected veterinarian supply with estimated demand through the year 2020.

Main Methods:

• Development of a manpower supply projection model.
• Comparison of projected veterinarian availability against needs identified in a National Academy of Science study.
• Inclusion of scenarios with additional veterinary college development.

Main Results:

• A net shortage of veterinarians was projected for every year between 1976 and 2020.
• Even with the establishment of 3 new veterinary colleges, the supply is projected to remain insufficient.
• The model indicates a persistent gap between the number of available veterinarians and the demand for veterinary services.

Conclusions:

• The United States faces a significant and ongoing shortage of veterinarians.
• Current and projected educational capacity is insufficient to meet future veterinary service needs.
• Policy interventions may be required to address the anticipated shortfall in veterinary manpower.