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Winter mortality and its causes.
1Medical Sciences Building, St. Bartholomew's and the Royal London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London, Great Britain. w.r.keatinge@qmul.ac.uk
International Journal of Circumpolar Health
|January 28, 2003
Summary
Cold weather significantly increases deaths from coronary thrombosis and respiratory disease. Global warming may reduce cold-related mortality, but adaptation is key, with cold remaining a primary environmental health concern.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Research in the 1970s identified significant increases in winter mortality and smaller rises during hot weather.
- Recent declines in influenza epidemics highlight other causes of excess winter deaths.
- Coronary thrombosis and respiratory diseases are major contributors to cold-related mortality.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the relationship between weather patterns and mortality, particularly excess winter deaths.
- To investigate the impact of global warming on temperature-related mortality.
- To assess the ongoing significance of cold as an environmental health risk.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of mortality data in relation to cold spells and hot weather.
- Examination of physiological mechanisms linking cold exposure to coronary thrombosis and respiratory disease.
- Review of global warming projections and their potential effects on mortality patterns.
Main Results:
- Excess winter deaths are primarily linked to coronary thrombosis (peaking 2 days after cold spells) and respiratory disease (peaking 12 days after cold spells).
- Cold-induced deaths are often due to hemoconcentration from fluid shifts or dehydration.
- Global warming is projected to decrease cold-related deaths more than it increases heat-related deaths, with populations adapting over time.
Conclusions:
- Cold remains the predominant environmental cause of illness and death, despite global warming.
- While heat-related deaths may increase, adaptation and reduced cold stress are expected outcomes of global warming.
- Further research is needed to differentiate air pollution deaths from weather-related mortality.