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Related Experiment Videos

The perfect ocean for drought.

Martin Hoerling1, Arun Kumar

  • 1Climate Diagnostics Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO 80305, USA. Martin.P.Hoerling@noaa.gov

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 1, 2003
PubMed
Summary
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Global droughts from 1998-2002 were linked by persistent ocean temperatures. Climate models reveal synergistic oceanic influences driving widespread mid-latitude drying and synchronized drought events.

Area of Science:

  • Climatology
  • Oceanography
  • Drought Studies

Background:

  • The 1998-2002 period experienced severe droughts across the United States, southern Europe, and Southwest Asia.
  • Persistent anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed in key oceanic regions during this time.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the common oceanic drivers behind the widespread 1998-2002 droughts.
  • To understand the synergistic effects of different oceanic influences on mid-latitude drying.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1998-2002.
  • Utilizing climate models to simulate the impact of observed oceanic conditions on regional climates.

Main Results:

  • Cold eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and warm western tropical Pacific/Indian Ocean SSTs were persistent.

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  • These distinct oceanic signals acted synergistically, contributing to synchronized mid-latitude drying.
  • The unprecedented warmth in the Indian and west Pacific oceans aligns with greenhouse gas forcing.

    • Conclusions:

    • Oceanic influences played a critical role in synchronizing and intensifying the 1998-2002 droughts.
    • Greenhouse gas forcing may have contributed to the anomalous ocean warmth driving these droughts.
    • Findings have implications for understanding and predicting future drought events.