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Surprises: low probabilities or high contrasts?

Karl Halvor Teigen1, Gideon Keren

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, P.O.B. 1094 Blindern, N-0317, Oslo, Norway. k.h.teigen@psykologi.uio.no

Cognition
|February 19, 2003
PubMed
Summary

Surprise is not just about low probability; it depends on how much an outcome contrasts with expectations. Greater contrast, whether from probability, novelty, or distance, leads to higher surprise ratings.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Outcome expectations are key in decision-making and learning.
  • Expectations can be framed as probability estimates (prospective) or surprise (retrospective).
  • Existing models often link surprise solely to low probability, but this is insufficient.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and test a contrast hypothesis for understanding surprise.
  • To differentiate surprise from simple probability estimates.
  • To identify factors contributing to the level of surprise experienced.

Main Methods:

  • Experimental design involving probability estimates and surprise ratings.
  • Manipulation of outcome contrasts based on relative probabilities.
  • Exploration of novelty, change, and perceptual/conceptual distance as contrast factors.

Main Results:

  • Not all low-probability outcomes elicit equal surprise.
  • Surprise levels are significantly influenced by the contrast between the outcome and the expected alternative.
  • Increased contrast, across different types, consistently correlated with higher surprise ratings.

Conclusions:

  • The contrast hypothesis provides a more nuanced explanation for surprise.
  • Surprise is a function of the deviation from the expected, not just the likelihood of the outcome.
  • Understanding contrast is crucial for modeling judgment and decision-making under uncertainty.

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