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Related Experiment Videos

League tables and school effectiveness: a mathematical model.

Rebecca B Hoyle1, James C Robinson

  • 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, UK. r.hoyle@surrey.ac.uk

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|February 20, 2003
PubMed
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UK school league tables can distort performance perceptions due to random fluctuations. Averaging exam results over time offers a more reliable measure of school performance than raw scores or value-added data.

Area of Science:

  • Educational research
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Social science

Background:

  • UK secondary schools have published performance data since 1992.
  • Media-generated 'league tables' rank schools based on exam results.
  • Concerns exist regarding the social and educational impact of these rankings.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the effects of school performance tables.
  • To assess the reliability of different ranking methodologies.
  • To understand distortions caused by year-to-year fluctuations.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a simple mathematical model.
  • Analysis of distortions in league-table positions.
  • Comparison of raw scores, value-added, and time-averaged data.

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Main Results:

  • Random yearly fluctuations can significantly alter school rankings.
  • Some schools consistently appear as 'desirable' despite fluctuations.
  • Value-added tables were not more accurate than raw score tables.
  • Time-averaged exam results provided a more reliable performance measure.

Conclusions:

  • School league tables can be misleading due to inherent variability.
  • Averaging performance data over time enhances reliability.
  • Rethinking the methodology for school performance assessment is recommended.