Statistical model of the interactions between Helicobacter pylori infection and gastric cancer development

The bacterium Helicobacter pylori is associated with a number of gastrointestinal diseases, such as gastric ulcer, duodenal ulcer and gastric cancer. Several histological changes may be observed during the course of infection; some may influence the progression towards cancer. The aim of this study was to build a statistical model to discover direct interactions between H. pylori and different precancerous changes of the gastric mucosa, and in what order and to what degree those may influence the development of the intestinal type of gastric cancer.

To find direct and indirect interactions between H. pylori and different histological variables, log-linear analyses were used on a case-control study. To generate mathematically and biologically relevant statistical models, a designed algorithm and observed frequency tables were used.

The results show that patients with H. pylori infection need to present with proliferation and intestinal metaplasia to develop gastric cancer of the intestinal type. Proliferation and intestinal metaplasia interacted with the variables atrophy and foveolar hyperplasia. Intestinal metaplasia was the only variable with direct interaction with gastric cancer. Gender had no effect on the variables examined.

The direct interactions observed in the final statistical model between H. pylori, changes of the mucosa and gastric cancer strengthens and supports previous theories about the progression towards gastric cancer. The results suggest that gastric cancer of the intestinal type may develop from H. pylori infection, proliferation and intestinal metaplasia, while atrophy and foveolar hyperplasia interplay with the other histological variables in the disease process.