Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Precaution, uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions.

Paolo F Ricci1, Dave Rice, John Ziagos

  • 1University of San Francisco, 2130 Fulton St, San Francisco, CA 94117, USA. apricci@earthlink.net

Environment International
|February 28, 2003
PubMed
Summary

Environmental policies need better ways to handle uncertainty and causation for severe outcomes. This study proposes a framework using alternative uncertainty measures and causal analysis for more resilient environmental choices.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Interventional probability of causation (IPoC) with epidemiological and partial mechanistic evidence: benzene vs. formaldehyde and acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

Critical reviews in toxicology·2024
Same author

Lost in the woods: Finding our way back to the scientific method in systematic review.

Global epidemiology·2023
Same author

Resolving an Open Science-policy question: Should the LNT still be an omnibus regulatory assumption?

The Science of the total environment·2022
Same author

The shape of low-concentration dose-response functions for benzene: implications for human health risk assessment.

Critical reviews in toxicology·2021
Same author

Ambient Air Pollution and Mortality in 652 Cities.

The New England journal of medicine·2019
Same author

Assessing Catastrophes-Dragon-Kings, Black, and Gray Swans-for Science-Policy.

Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)·2019

Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science and Policy
  • Risk Assessment and Management
  • Environmental Law and Economics

Background:

  • Environmental policies, such as the precautionary principle, struggle with managing severe, irreversible outcomes due to incomplete, inconsistent, and complex scientific evidence.
  • Existing legal principles provide boundaries but lack operational constructs for making choices under scientific uncertainty and variability.
  • Past policies have led to unanticipated harm, highlighting the need for improved methods in environmental decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a constructive framework for environmental management that rationally addresses the precautionary principle's command.
  • To identify alternative measures of uncertainty and statistical methods of causal analysis to improve decision-making for potentially severe environmental outcomes.
  • To bridge the gap between conjectured harm and scant scientific evidence, leading to more confident and resilient social choices.

Related Experiment Videos

Main Methods:

  • Review of qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency.
  • Examination of scientific developments relevant to data variability, uncertain data, and causation.
  • Application of inductive, empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks to link uncertainty measures with causal analysis.

Main Results:

  • A proposed framework integrating alternative uncertainty measures and causal analysis methods can enhance the management of environmental hazards.
  • The framework facilitates more confident and resilient social choices by addressing gaps between conjectured harm and scientific evidence.
  • Specific guidance on representing uncertainty and handling uncertain causation in primary legislation can lead to accurate and efficient choices.

Conclusions:

  • Primary legislation should explicitly define measures for uncertainty and methods for uncertain causation to guide regulatory agencies.
  • Updating past information as new data emerges is crucial to avoid regretting past environmental choices.
  • Embedding formal methods for uncertainty representation in statutory language strengthens legislative accountability and judicial review.