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Quantitative microbiologic models for preterm delivery.

Andrew B Onderdonk1, Mei-Ling Lee, Ellice Lieberman

  • 1Channing Laboratory, Departments of Pathology and Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA. aonderdonk@partners.org

Journal of Clinical Microbiology
|March 8, 2003
PubMed
Summary

Predicting preterm delivery (PTD) may be possible using vaginal microbiome data. Quantitative microbiologic cultures applied to pregnant women show potential for early PTD risk assessment.

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Area of Science:

  • Reproductive health
  • Microbiology
  • Maternal-fetal medicine

Background:

  • Preterm delivery (PTD) is a major cause of infant morbidity and mortality.
  • Epidemiological studies suggest a link between PTD and vaginal bacteria.
  • The multifactorial etiology of PTD indicates no single bacterial cause.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop predictive microbiologic models for PTD.
  • To assess the potential of quantitative vaginal microflora analysis for PTD prediction.
  • To evaluate the efficacy of predictive models using logistic regression.

Main Methods:

  • Quantitative microbiologic cultures of vaginal swabs from pregnant women.
  • Application of logistic regression analysis incorporating microbiologic data.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Development of four predictive models based on quantitative microbiologic data.

    • Main Results:

    • Receiver operating curve analysis showed areas under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.74 to 0.94.
    • A model for women with previous PTD achieved an AUC of 0.91 (CI, 0.79 to 1).
    • High predictive accuracy was observed for certain risk groups.

    Conclusions:

    • Predictive models incorporating microbiologic risk factors show promise for PTD prediction.
    • Measurement at 20 weeks gestation may allow for early PTD risk assessment.
    • Vaginal microbiome analysis offers a potential tool for managing PTD risk.