The prediction of medical student performance using in-course assessment

The value of in-course assessment at King's College Hospital Medical School at predicting student performance at final qualifying examinations in medicine and surgery has been analysed. Only a small proportion of the variation in marks at finals could be explained by the factors studied. Both the MCQ and firm report methods of internal assessment used in the first clinical year were equally valuable at predicting final outcome. Performance at 2nd MB BS, the possession of another degree and the sequence of firm attachment in the first year have little predictive value. Female students are predicted to perform better in medicine than in surgery. The development of a more standardized quantifiable firm assessment looks potentially more valuable at predicting performance than refining the first year MCQ examinations.