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Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities.

Robert E Davis1, Paul C Knappenberger, Wendy M Novicoff

  • 1Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400123, Charlottesville 22904-4123, USA. red3u@virginia.edu

International Journal of Biometeorology
|April 11, 2003
PubMed
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Heat-related mortality in U.S. cities has decreased over time, despite rising temperatures. Adaptations like air conditioning and better healthcare have reduced the impact of extreme heat events.

Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health
  • Climate Science
  • Urban Epidemiology

Background:

  • Anthropogenic climate warming is projected to increase heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.
  • Existing analyses often assume static weather-mortality relationships, potentially overestimating future risks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine decadal changes in the relationship between mortality and hot, humid weather in large U.S. cities.
  • To assess if adaptation strategies have altered heat-mortality impacts over time.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 29 years of daily mortality data for 28 U.S. cities with populations over one million.
  • Age-standardization of mortality rates to account for demographic shifts.
  • Calculation of apparent temperature (T(a)) thresholds and comparison of mortality rates across decades.

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Main Results:

  • Mortality rates on high T(a) days were lower in the 1980s and 1990s compared to the 1960s and 1970s in most studied cities.
  • Northeastern and northern cities showed reduced but still elevated mortality on hot days, while southern cities did not.
  • A decadal decline in heat-related mortality suggests successful adaptation.

Conclusions:

  • Adaptations, including increased air conditioning use, improved healthcare, and public awareness, have mitigated heat-mortality impacts.
  • Observed adaptation challenges the validity of projections estimating increased U.S. mortality due to future greenhouse warming.
  • Future climate change impact assessments should incorporate adaptive capacity.