[Forecast of physician workforce in the 22 French regions (1998-2013)]

The first chapter provides detailed information on the methodology and data used. As were the other projections carried out in the past by the Centre de sociologie et de démographie médicales, the present work is basically a demographic projection. Whereas a projection of national workforce uses the total number of annual new graduates as inflow, a regional projection has to collect other types of data, as new graduates move freely from one region to another. This fundamental difference implies the use of more complex models for predicting the flows of newcomers at regional level. As concerns the outflow, a single table covering retirement and death is used for all regions. The medical profession is a homogeneous group and such a decision is not irrelevant. The second chapter presents briefly the results of the work as concerns one region. In the high variant, the regional number of physicians will continue to increase from 1998 to 2007 or 2008, then it will decrease. In the low variant, the growth will end in 2004 or 2005, followed by a stronger decreasing process. The decrease is caused by the "graduate boom" cohorts (doctors graduated during the 70's and 80's) reaching retirement age. Given the duration of medical training, the decrease will take place even if the numerous clausus (at the start of medical training) rises steadily right now. The decrease in the number of physicians will be accompanied by an aging process: the proportion of senior active doctors will raise and that of junior doctors will diminish. The third chapter evidences the diversity of the various regional trends.