The dynamics of T-cell fratricide: application of a robust approach to mathematical modelling in immunology

Fratricide between CD8(+) T lymphocytes is known to occur in HTLV-I and possibly HSV-1 and HIV-1 infection. However it is not known what effect, if any, T-cell fratricide has on the course of infection. Here we present simple mathematical techniques to investigate T-cell fratricide with particular reference to HTLV-I infection. Using a general model we predict the qualitative and quantitative effect of fratricide on HTLV-I equilibrium proviral load. We also investigate the effect of fratricide on the probability of viral clearance. We show that, surprisingly, fratricide can lead either to an increase or a decrease in equilibrium proviral load. We derive the conditions necessary for fratricide to cause a decrease in load and deduce that, for the five HTLV-I-positive patients considered here, fratricide has probably caused an increase in equilibrium load. We also estimate the percentage increase in load that is attributable to fratricide and determine the parameters that should be measured in order to improve this estimate. Finally, we show that fratricide reduces the probability of viral clearance. Mathematical modelling of HTLV-I infection, as is often the case in biology, is severely hampered by a lack of experimental data. Consequently it is difficult to know what functional form a model should take. The behaviour of complex nonlinear systems is highly model-dependent. Predictions based on theoretical models are therefore sensitive to the choice of model; this is a very severe problem that undermines and limits the success of the application of mathematics to immunology. In this paper we reduce the model dependency of the results in two ways-by considering (analytically) a general model with a minimal number of assumptions and, where this is not possible, by checking (numerically) that a wide range of models yield the same results. We therefore begin to develop two practical methods for dealing with the problem of robustness in mathematical models of the immune system.