Shot range estimation based on pellet distribution in shots with a pump-action shotgun

Area of Science:

• Forensic Ballistics
• Firearms Analysis
• Statistical Modeling

Background:

• Accurate determination of firearm discharge distance is crucial in forensic investigations.
• Existing methods for range estimation often require specialized equipment or specific scene conditions.
• Understanding pellet dispersion patterns can offer an alternative approach to range determination.

Purpose of the Study:

• To establish a correlation between shotgun pellet distribution and firing range.
• To develop a predictive model for estimating shooting distance based on pellet spread.
• To provide a practical tool for forensic experts in firearms analysis.

Main Methods:

• Fired shotgun pellets of varying sizes (2, 3.5, 5, 8mm) from a 12-gauge shotgun at controlled distances (0.7 to 25m).
• Measured the maximum vertical and horizontal distances between pellets for each shot.
• Applied linear regression analysis (y=a+bx) to correlate pellet distribution with firing range.

Main Results:

• A highly significant correlation was found between pellet distribution and firing distance for all pellet sizes.
• Calculated constants 'a' and 'b' for the linear regression equation, specific to the tested shotgun and ammunition.
• Demonstrated the potential for accurate range estimation within acceptable error margins.

Conclusions:

• The derived linear regression equations and provided data tables enable reliable shotgun firing range determination.
• This method is applicable under identical conditions for the same firearm barrel length, diameter, and cartridge type.
• The findings may also inform range estimation for pellets of comparable size and characteristics.