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Ecological interference between fatal diseases

P Rohani1, C J Green, N B Mantilla-Beniers

  • 1Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602-2202, USA. rohani@uga.edu

Nature
|April 25, 2003
PubMed

Insights

Ecological interference between pathogens, where one disease removes individuals from the susceptible pool, significantly impacts epidemic dynamics. This effect is strongest with fatal infections, causing outbreaks to occur out of phase.

Area of Science:

  • Population biology
  • Epidemiology
  • Disease ecology

Background:

  • Pathogen interactions are crucial in population biology.
  • Previous research focused on cross-immunity between pathogen strains.
  • A new mechanism, 'ecological interference,' suggests pathogens affect each other by removing hosts from the susceptible pool.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the proposed mechanism of ecological interference between pathogens.
  • To analyze historical disease data to understand this interaction.
  • To model the dynamical consequences of ecological interference.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of historical measles and whooping cough records.
  • Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics.
  • Comparison of epidemic patterns under different interference scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Ecological interference is a significant factor in disease dynamics.
  • The effect is particularly pronounced when infections are fatal, permanently removing susceptibles.
  • Multi-annual outbreaks of different diseases were observed to be characteristically out of phase.

Conclusions:

  • Ecological interference, especially with fatal diseases, substantially alters epidemic patterns.
  • Studying pathogens in isolation is insufficient when disease prevalence and mortality are high.
  • This ecological null model provides a new framework for understanding multi-strain pathogen dynamics, including diseases like dengue and echoviruses.

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