Positive predictive value of liquid-based and conventional cervical Papanicolaou smears reported as malignant

The predictive value of cervical Papanicolaou (Pap) smears reported as "positive for malignancy," especially those obtained by the liquid-based method, has not been adequately assessed. The objectives of this study are to determine the positive predictive value of Papanicolaou smears with features of malignancy, to compare the accuracy of Papanicolaou smears obtained by the liquid-based method to those obtained by the conventional technique in this setting, and to study the factors influencing a false-positive cytologic diagnosis of malignancy.

Pap smears significant for malignant cytology were identified at Fletcher Allen Health Care Hospital in Burlington, VT, from May 1, 1995, to April 30, 2001. A retrospective review of the hospital records and pathology reports was performed documenting patient characteristics, the collection technique, and the final histology. An independent review of the cytology and histology was performed. The positive predictive value and false-positive rate of malignant cytology were calculated for the liquid-based and conventional Pap smear techniques.

A total of 472,743 Pap smears were performed during the period specified. One hundred four Pap smears were reported as positive for malignancy, yielding a prevalence rate of 0.02%. A total of 68 patients had paired cytology and histology specimens. Malignant cytology was identified in 36 smears obtained by the liquid-based technique and 32 smears obtained by the conventional technique. A true-positive result, meaning malignant cytology confirmed by the presence of invasive carcinoma on histology, was obtained in 61 of 68 (89.7%) patients. A false-positive result, meaning malignant cytology not confirmed by histology, was obtained in 7 of the 68 (10.3%) patients. The false-positive rate of malignant cytology was 8.4% for the liquid-based technique and 12.5% for the conventional technique. All 7 false-positive smears were diagnosed with high-grade dysplasia by histology. Three of the 7 patients with high-grade dysplasia had previous treatment for dysplasia, one of whom was also pregnant at the time of the smear.

Malignant cervical Papanicolaou smear cytology has a high positive predictive value in the setting of gynecologic and nongynecologic malignancies. Previous treatment for cervical dysplasia or pregnancy may influence the false-positive rate of malignant cytology.